Introduction
The Thomas Fire and subsequent debris flow on 9 January 2018 devastated portions of Montecito and the surrounding communities. The debris flow killed 23 people and damaged or destroyed hundreds of homes and commercial properties. Following the debris flow, Santa Barbara County inspected over 600 structures for damage. Properties were marked either Green (typically 0-10 percent damage), Yellow (typically 10-60 percent damage), or Red (typically 60-100 percent damage). Green Tag properties were deemed safe, Yellow Tag properties were allowed restricted use, and Red Tag properties were deemed uninhabitable. Approximately 38 percent of dwelling structures initially received a Green Tag, 29 percent of dwelling structures received a Yellow Tag, and 33 percent of dwelling structures received a Red Tag.
RDN published a report last year focusing on recovery efforts one year after the disaster. At that time most parcels had returned to Green status. However, we found that most of the completed building projects were demolitions as opposed to repairs.
This report (1) updates our analysis of recovery efforts and (2) additionally projects the timeline for unfinished building efforts. Figure 1 displays the initial inspection results from January 2018 and the current inspection status as of January 2020. Although most of the structures have passed inspection as of January 2020, there are still a considerable number of damaged structures. RDN obtained building permit history from the Santa Barbara County Planning website for the 285 parcels categorized with a Yellow or Red Tag in January 2018 or January 2020. RDN categorized each permit associated with recovery from the debris flow into one of five project types:
- No Activity - Parcel had no building permit activity.
- Partial Demolition - Partial demolition of a structure.
- Full Demolition - Full demolition of a structure.
- Repair - Like for like repairs associated with debris flow damage.
- Repair & Remodel - Building upgrades, in addition to repairs associated with debris flow damage.
In addition to project type, RDN collected the permit application submittal date, permit issue date, final inspection date (if the project was completed), and the estimated cost associated with each building permit. Estimated costs are those provided by the contractor during the permitting process. Contractors have an incentive to underestimate the cost of the project to reduce permitting fees, so we argue the presented costs represent the lower bound of actual building costs.